[This article is definitely going into spoilers for Avengers: Infinity War. For those who still haven’t seen it, take the opportunity that Peter Parker passed up and turn back now. I mean, the Blu-ray’s out.]
It was a busy day between Avengers: Infinity War and Avengers 4 when Reddit user u/K5cents attempted a simulation: What were the odds of Captain America, Iron Man, Hulk, Thor, and Black Widow surviving Thanos’ Snap? It was a good attempt, but didn’t quite get the model right—we’re not guaranteed that half of the heroes survive, just half the population—and, by the way, Hawkeye’s got a 50/50 chance of still being alive, too. Do you really expect him to sit Avengers 4 out?
So, what is the probability of the 6 original Avengers surviving, based on Thanos’ death-coin-for-everyone? Let’s find out.